Adaptation to a novel predator in Drosophila melanogaster: How well are we able to predict evolutionary responses?

Abstract Evolutionary theory is sufficiently well developed to allow for short-term prediction of evolutionary trajectories. In addition to the presence of heritable variation, prediction requires knowledge of the form of natural selection on relevant traits. While many studies estimate the form of natural selection, few examine the degree to which traits evolve in the predicted direction. In this study we examine the form of natural selection …