Modeling isoexposure to transit users for market potential analysis

Transit operators face a difficult fiscal environment and an imperative to contribute to urban sustainability. Under these circumstances, operators must find innovative ways to make public transportation attractive to broader segments of the public, while simultaneously trying to raise revenue to reduce reliance on public subsidies. Development of commercial partnerships is seen as a promising way to achieve these goals. Previous research has examined the potential of using geodemographics to assist transit agencies in the task of identifying potential partners for developing mutually beneficial commercial agreements. In this paper we describe an approach to model isoexposure to transit users as a tool to assess market potential. The approach is based on the analysis of walking behavior of transit users, and specifically distance walked at the end of their transit trip. Spatial modeling is used to geographically project estimates of walking distance for a desired demographic profile at a specific transit facility. After expanding the estimates using sample weights, overlays of these estimates can be used to generate variations in exposure to transit travelers at different locations in space. The approach is demonstrated using the case of Metro users in Montreal, Canada. The case study demonstrates the use of isoexposure profiles as a novel approach to generate marketing intelligence. This should be of interest to transit agencies and businesses interested in developing partnerships.