Climate change and transportation in Northern Canada: an integrated impact assessment

The physical and economic impacts of climate warming in the Mackenzie River Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada are estimated using a combination of stochastic modelling, econometric-modelling and input-output analysis. The attempt was to illustrate the utility of using analytical models for long-term impact assessment as well as to estimate the potential impacts from projected climate warming in the region. A scenario approach, based on three global circulation models, was used, with an emphasis on modelling climate variability, river ice conditions and economic impacts. The transportation system was used as a central focus linking the physical and socio-economic components. Despite the significant warming projected for the region, results show the economic impacts from changes in transportation to be relatively minor, with the greatest changes being in the tertiary, or service, sector.