Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns Academic Article uri icon

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abstract

  • This article uses a Markov-switching model that incorporates duration dependence to capture non-linear structure in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns. The model sorts returns into a high-return stable state and a low-return volatile state. We label these as bull and bear markets, respectively. The filter identifies all major stock-market downturns in over 160 years of monthly data. Bull markets have a declining hazard function although the best market gains come at the start of a bull market. Volatility increases with duration in bear markets. Allowing volatility to vary with duration captures volatility clustering.

publication date

  • January 2000