The population health impact of arthritis. POHEM Workshop Group.

The workshop was convened to develop quantitative estimates of the incidence of progressional musculoskeletal diseases in order to estimate the population health impact of arthritis. Estimates were developed for (a) the prevalence of arthritis, (b) a weighting strategy to adjust for the quality of life for the range of health states associated with arthritis, and (c) transition probabilities to represent the likelihood of disease onset and progression through the range of possible health states. A simulation "game" was designed to follow the progression of a cohort of 200 healthy persons or persons with arthritis, creating the basis for the estimation of transition probabilities and thus generating simulated longitudinal data that allow calculation of the quantitative estimate of the burden of illness from musculoskeletal diseases within the Canadian population.