Development of a non-deterministic fractional low-carbon transition programming method associated with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) assessment--application to Shanxi Province, China

Low-carbon transition could exert far-reaching effects on achievement of regional Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Herein, a non-deterministic fractional low-carbon transition programming method (FLCT) associated with an optimization-driven SDGs assessment approach (OSDG) was developed, and applied to Shanxi Province, China. We found that regions heavily dependent on fossil energy could achieve its SDGs progress when promoting low-carbon transition, and identified the suitable transition pathway. Our results demonstrated whether SDGs performance could be advanced will be determined by substitute of renewable-dominated power structure for fossil-dominated one. In Shanxi Province, renewable power is expected to account for 60 % of total power generation as the largest energy source during 2026–2040. Specifically, wind power would contribute approximately 50 %. Our research is expected to help provide improved insights into low-carbon transition pathways in Energy-Water-Carbon (EWC) nexus system and contribute to bridging the gaps between low-carbon transition and UN's SDGs.