Full-chain optimization of China’s net-zero emissions energy system toward 2060

Designing a full-chain net-zero emissions pathway remains a critical challenge for energy system, as it requires coordinated transformation from energy production to end use, while balancing supply-side costs and user-side benefits. This challenge is further complicated by stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties, which increase system failure risks and reduce decision robustness. To address this, we develop an Energy System Uncertainty Optimization Model for China (China-UE model) with the objective of maximizing net benefit. Results indicate that renewable energy supply should account for >75 % by 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality. Meanwhile, end-use electrification should rise above 72.3 %, with a limited share of fossil fuels retained for energy security. Notably, the model also captures synergistic air quality co-benefits. After CO2 emissions peak in 2027–2030, air pollutants emissions decline significantly. These findings provide actionable insights for robust and cost-effective planning of China’s carbon-neutral energy transition under uncertainty.