The incidence of pancreatic cancer in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer in women with a germline mutation in BRCA1 and BRCA2 is not well established. In an international prospective cohort of female carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations, the cumulative incidence of pancreatic cancer from age 40 until 80 years was estimated. METHODS: A total of 8295 women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation were followed for new cases of pancreatic cancer. Subjects were followed from the date of baseline questionnaire or age 40 years (whichever came last) until a new diagnosis of pancreatic cancer, death from another cause, or date of last follow-up. RESULTS: Thirty-four incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified in the cohort. The annual risk of pancreatic cancer between age 40 and 80 years was 0.04% for BRCA1 carriers and 0.09% for BRCA2 carriers. Via the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative incidence from age 40 to 80 years was 2.2% (95% CI, 1.1%-4.3%) for BRCA1 carriers and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.3%-5.4%) for BRCA2 carriers. Only two of the 34 cases reported a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio, 4.75; 95% CI, 1.13-19.9; p = .03). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer included alcohol intake and a history of diabetes. The 5-year survival rate for the 34 cases was 8.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer is approximately 2% in women with a BRCA1 mutation and 3% for women with a BRCA2 mutation. The poor survival in hereditary pancreatic cancer underscores the need for novel antitumoral strategies.