abstract
- Signs and symptoms of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are present at preschool ages and often not identified for early intervention. We aimed to use machine learning to detect ADHD early among kindergarten-aged children using population-level administrative health data and a childhood developmental vulnerability surveillance tool: Early Development Instrument (EDI). The study cohort consists of 23,494 children born in Alberta, Canada, who attended kindergarten in 2016 without a diagnosis of ADHD. In a four-year follow-up period, 1,680 children were later identified with ADHD using case definition. We trained and tested machine learning models to predict ADHD prospectively. The best-performing model using administrative and EDI data could reliably predict ADHD and achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.811 during cross-validation. Key predictive factors included EDI subdomain scores, sex, and socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that machine learning algorithms that use population-level surveillance data could be a valuable tool for early identification of ADHD.