Energy-water-carbon system management in response to climate change in China under uncertainties (2026–2050)

Climate change has seriously affected the resource utilization of the energy-water-carbon system, while the system carbon emissions continuously act on climate change. Given the interaction between the two, there is an urgent need to facilitate the rational allocation of system resources to realize the positive feedback between climate change and energy-water-carbon system development. In this study, an interval stochastic fuzzy integer programming (ISFIP) model is developed to support resource planning and management of the energy-water-carbon system in response to climate change in China. The developed model has advantages in characterizing the complexity and uncertainty of the energy-water-carbon system and providing optimal system decision-making options under multiple climate change scenarios. The results show that the SSP126-NZE scenario power system would reduce carbon emissions by 16.23 %, air pollutant emissions by 19.31 %, water consumption by 30.96 %, and increase economic benefits by 10.97 %, respectively, compared to the SSP585-STEPS baseline scenario.