The InterSECT Framework: a proposed model for explaining population-level trends in substance use and emotional concerns

Across high-income countries, adolescent emotional concerns have been increasing in prevalence over the past two decades and it is unclear why this is occurring, including whether and how substance use relates to these changing trends. On the other hand, substance use has been generally declining, and little is known about the role of emotional concerns in these trends. Several studies have explored the changes in co-occurring substance use and emotional concerns among adolescents over time, with mixed results and inconsistent messaging about the implications of the findings. In response, we developed a theoretical framework for exploring the intersection between trends in substance use and emotional concerns (InterSECT Framework). This framework includes a discussion and related examples for 3 core hypotheses: (1) strengthening of co-occurrence, or the "hardening" hypothesis; (2) co-occurrence staying the same, or the "consistency" hypothesis; and (3) weakening of co-occurrence, or the "decoupling" hypothesis. This framework seeks to guide the conceptualization, evaluation, and understanding of changes in the co-occurrence of substance use and emotional concerns over time, including outlining a research agenda informed by pre-existing research and youth perspectives.