Predictors of short-term death and long-term survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with contemporary tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) or immunotherapy: A multicenter analysis from the HCC-CHORD consortium.
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4098 Background: Advances in systemic therapy for HCC have increased treatment options, including TKIs and immunotherapy combinations. Variables that predict patient outcomes may be helpful in personalizing treatment decisions. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of short-term death (STD) and long-term survival (LTS) for HCC patients. Methods: Retrospective review of patients with advanced HCC who received a TKI or immunotherapy combinations was conducted between Aug 2018 to Aug 2022 in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, Manitoba, as well as from select institutions in Ontario (n = 2). Prior locoregional therapies were permitted. Variables examined were: Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, Child-Pugh class, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level, microvascular invasion (MVI), and distant metastases. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of STD (patient survival < 6 months vs others) and LTS (patient survival > 18 months vs others). Results: 520 patients with the following baseline characteristics were included: median age 66, 84.6% male, 87.4% ECOG performance status 0-1, 69.7% BCLC stage C, and 88.7% Child-Pugh A. First-line treatments were primarily: lenvatinib 57.3%, sorafenib 8.1%, and atezolizumab/bevacizumab 31.7%. Median progression-free survival was 7.4 months (95% CI: 6.2 to 8.4), and overall survival was 17.1 months (95% CI:, 15.1 to 18.8). Independent predictors of STD were (odds ratio): ALBI grade (2.26), MVI (2.13), and distant metastases (2.14). These three factors were also predictive for LTS: ALBI grade (0.45), MVI (0.49), and distant metastases (0.36). Child-Pugh class, AFP, and BCLC stage were not predictive of STD nor LTS (Table). Conclusions: This study supports higher ALBI grade, MVI and distant metastases as predictors of STD, while lower ALBI grade, absence of MVI and lack of distant metastases were predictive of LTS in HCC patients treated with contemporary TKIs or immunotherapy combination regimens. These predictors may help guide treatment decisions in patient populations underrepresented in clinical trials, including patients with Child-Pugh B7 score who are often excluded. [Table: see text]
