Monetary Policy and Built–In Stability

Concern about globalization has rekindled interest in a longstanding issue—the implications for macroeconomic stability of alternative monetary/exchange–rate policies. This paper re–examines the issue, and it assesses the robustness of several recommendations by comparing the results of a series of small open–economy macro models. All involve model–consistent exchange–rate expectations and (through the existence of intermediate imports) supply–side effects of exchange–rate changes. The first model is descriptive, while the second and third allow for more thorough–going micro foundations and forward–looking behavior—first on the supply side (with multiperiod overlapping contracts), and then on the demand side (with the Ramsey theory of consumption). To clarify the impact of each change in model specification, they are introduced one at a time, and the same questions are posed at each stage. Two issues are examined—the implications of alternative monetary policies for (i) the effect on output of a one–time (unexpected) change in demand, and (ii) the effect on the amplitude of the business cycle that accompanies an ongoing (anticipated) cycle in demand. Three policies are compared: price–level targeting, wage–rate targeting, and exchange–rate targeting.