Abstract Attributing intensification extreme precipitation to anthropogenic factors on the regional scale is challenging, given the large fluctuations and the complexity of quantifying interactions among these anthropogenic factors. Here, we propose a new variance‐based method to investigate the roles of human‐induced greenhouse gas (GHG), aerosol (AER), and their interactions (GA) in shaping extreme precipitation on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) at stational scale. In terms of contribution, GHG has the greatest impact on total wet‐day precipitation and simple daily intensity. In terms of significance, GA, and AER exert significant effects on all 10 extreme indices ( P ; < 0.05) over 48.3% and 44.8% of all stations, while GHG affects less (25.9%). Overall, GHG is not the only dominant factor, and GA and AER are expected to play vital roles in intensifying extreme precipitation over the QTP under SSP2‐4.5. These findings challenge the conventional insights that GHG is the primary anthropogenic driver of extreme precipitation.
Plain Language Summary Greenhouse gas (GHG) has long been regarded as the primary anthropogenic driver of the intensification of extreme precipitation. However, extreme precipitation is closely linked to the complex interplay of various anthropogenic influences, with contributions varying across regions due to differences in longitude, latitude, and altitude. Here, we propose a new method to robustly quantify the contributions of GHG, AER, and GA to extreme precipitation at each station on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP). The results show that the majority of the stations quantified by this method are statistically significant. Importantly, we find that complex interactions of GHG and AER will shape extreme precipitation over the QTP. These findings challenge the traditional understanding of climate change attributed solely to GHG and prompt a reconsideration of whether reducing GHG alone could effectively mitigate climate change.
Key Points We propose a new variance‐based factorial analysis method to quantify contributions of anthropogenic factors at each meteorological station over Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) Extreme precipitation over the QTP is projected to increase in the upcoming century The interaction between greenhouse gas and aerosol would play a key role in intensification extreme precipitation over QTP under SSP2‐4.5