Predicting the Temperature-Driven Development of Stage-Structured Insect Populations with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

The management of forest pests relies on an accurate understanding of the species’ phenology. Thermal performance curves (TPCs) have traditionally been used to model insect phenology. Many such models have been proposed and fitted to data from both wild and laboratory-reared populations. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for estimation, we implement and fit an individual-level, Bayesian hierarchical model of insect development to the observed …