Climate Change Impacts on Frost and Thaw Considerations: Case Study of Airport Pavement Design in Canada

Rising temperatures due to the climate change can significantly impact the frost/thaw condition of airport pavements in cold regions. This case study investigates the implications of the the warming temperatures on frost/thaw penetration and frost-heave of pavements for critical airports across Canada. To this end, different methods were used in the quantification process through climate change simulations considering the emission scenario RCP8.5 in a 20- and 40-year time horizon. The results show that climate change would have different design implications for airport pavements depending on their location. The predictions suggest a shallower frost penetration depth and possibly less frost-heave for the airports not underlain by permafrost, while airports over permafrost areas might experience an increase in thickness of the active layer ranging from 41 to 57 percent by 2061. Among the different methods used in this study, it was observed that some methods performed the best in predicting frost depth of fine soils, while others worked better with the frost depth prediction of coarse soils. The results indicate the need for more mechanistic models to provide a more realistic prediction of frost/thaw penetration as compared to the existing empirical models.