Synergetic Planning of Multi-regional Energy System Under Climate Change and Uncertainty

Climate change and uncertainty have significant impacts on the multi-regional energy system in terms of both supply and demand. In this study, a multi-regional energy model is developed based on the interval linear programming method. The model could not only describe the complex relationship between inter-regional interaction and energy transmission in detail, but also provide optimal schemes for regulating electricity generation mix, mitigating carbon emissions, and minimizing system cost. The results show that: (i) from 2021 to 2050, the proportion of fossil fuels in energy and electricity supply will show a decreasing trend, and the regional energy and electricity structure will be optimized; (ii) under the RCP4.5 scenarios, regional carbon emissions will peak around 2040 and show a decreasing trend after the peak, with a reduction of about 1.45%; (iii) the BTH region should bear additional costs of carbon emission reduction under the RCP4.5 scenarios, the total system cost is about 1.2 times of that under the RCP8.5 scenarios.