A practical generation interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed

Abstract Infectious-disease outbreaks are often characterized by the reproductive number and 𝓡 exponential rate of growth r . 𝓡 provides information about out-break control and predicted final size. Directly estimating 𝓡 is difficult, while r can often be estimated from incidence data. These quantities are linked by the generation interval – the time between when an individual is infected by an infector, and when that infector was infected. It …