Development of Disaggregated-Sector Cross-Region Emission Mitigation Model for Supporting Climate Change Policymaking

As one of the most challenging environment issues worldwide, climate change has posed a serious threat to habitat, species, and people’s livelihoods. In this study, a disaggregated-sector cross-region emission mitigation model is developed to systematically analyze enviro-economic effects of emission-mitigation efforts from the perspectives of various sector/region levels for supporting climate change policymaking. A special case study of Hubei Province, China, where there are two large hydraulic projects [i.e., Gezhouba Dam (GZBD) and Three Gorges Project (TGP)], is conducted to demonstrate the potential benefits of its use in the climate change related policy-making field. Contributions of both GZBD and TGP to climate change have been simulated through the multi-level sector mitigation policy scenarios from both industry optimization and demand substitute perspectives. Results indicate that dominant direct and indirect CO2 emissions in Hubei Province are from Thermal and Construction sector, respectively. When using clean power to replace thermal power without power-demand changes, the mitigation performance of hydropower is more significant than that of wind power and solar power. It is thus a good choice for Hubei Province to produce more hydropower instead of thermal power for achieving the emission-mitigation target and satisficing the increased power demand induced by economic development.