The dynamics of advancing climate policy in federal political systems

Abstract To avoid irreversible climate damages, countries with different political systems must commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions across the world. The challenge posed to federal countries participating in international climate agreements through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is that successful implementation requires buy‐in from their subnational governments. However, subnational climate action may not be aligned with the political priorities of the national government and could either undermine or support commitments made through the agreement. To explore these dynamics, we review the incoherence between international commitments, national and subnational policies of Canada and the United States, relying on case studies of investments in low‐carbon energy and emissions outcomes. Political and policy incoherence has flowed in both directions. Both countries have seen periods of federal government action, which have been undermined by subnational inaction or opposition. Similarly, both countries have seen periods of federal government inaction, which has placed the onus on subnational governments. Our analysis enables a greater understanding about how the dynamics of federalist political systems influence policy, thus the energy investment and emissions outcomes of national commitments to international agreements. The implications of our findings for other federalist political systems are discussed. We suggest that during national leadership voids, subnational governments can counteract the associated negative policy outcomes by implementing climate policies that support low‐carbon technologies and reducing emissions. This type of system supports the development of a coordinated strategy among subnational governments in achieving international goals through cooperative federalism via subnational policy compacts.