Factors influencing modal split of commuting journeys in medium-size European cities

This paper attempts to identify factors that influence modal split for journeys to work in 112 medium-size cities in Europe. Using a discrete choice modelling approach we find that: (a) car share increases with car ownership and GDP per capita; (b) motorcycle share decreases with petrol price and increases with motorcycle ownership; (c) bicycle share increases with the length of the bicycle network in the city; (d) public transport share increases with resident population, GDP per capita and the number of buses (or bus equivalents) operating per 1000 population, and decreases with public transport fares, number of days of rain per year, proportion of people aged 65 and over living in the city and the proportion of households with children; (e) the number of students in universities and further education establishments per 1000 resident population is positively associated with the shares of public transport, motorcycle, bicycle and walking. Policies aimed at increasing the bicycle network are likely to increase cycling share. Policies aimed at increasing the number of buses (or bus equivalents) and reducing public transport fares are likely to increase public transport share. Policies aimed at discouraging car ownership are likely to reduce car share.