Inequality, grievances, and the variability in homicide rates

Homicide rates vary dramatically both between and within countries. Income inequality is the best established correlate of this variability, but many other possible contributors to the variance have been proposed. The most influential of these appears to be the availability of impartial third-party dispute resolution, which obviates the need for “self-help” justice. The “legitimacy” of government and its institutions is a closely related variable that has also been championed as a determinant of homicide's prevalence. These and other candidate predictors are not independent of one another, and the regression methods that have dominated the field are inadequate for capturing the complex reality of multiple correlated predictors, bidirectional effects, feedback loops, and lagged influences of the “independent” variables on one another and on homicide itself. New, interdisciplinary systems models that incorporate the interplay between the “macro-social” variables favored by criminologists and the grievances that motivate violent offenders are now required.