Who will adopt private automated vehicles and automated shuttle buses? Testing the roles of past experience and performance expectancy

To better plan for potential impacts of automated vehicles (AV), this study investigates the effects of performance expectancy and experience, based on the Unified Theory of the Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), on willingness to pay for private automated vehicles (PAVs) and intention to use an automated shuttle bus. Using survey data (N = 2658) from Southern Ontario, Canada, experience is separated into two constructs: experience with partially automated vehicles and experience with public transit. Results indicate that the impacts of performance expectancy are strongest, that AV experience and transit experience impact PAV adoption, but that transit experience is only linked with intention to use an automated shuttle bus. Findings paint a complex picture of the application of common technology adoption models to transportation planning, as the notion of ‘experience’ is multi-dimensional and suggests complex pathways towards shifting from existing mobility options towards new alternatives, such as PAVs and shuttle buses.