Development of a Multi‐Region Power System Risk Management Model for Supporting China's Carbon Neutrality Ambition in 2060s

Abstract In order to peak emissions before 2030 and to achieve the net‐zero ambition around 2060, China urgently needs to accelerate low‐carbon transition, especially in the power system. Previous studies were mainly focused on deterministic optimization, with some of them being followed by sensitivity analyses. To tackle the gaps and to support the net‐zero ambition, this study develops a multi‐region power system risk management (MPRM) model to analyze composite effects of renewable energy development and inter‐regional electricity transmission under uncertainties, and their combinations to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In detail, MPRM can (a) reveal the downward trend in costs of renewable energy and the increasing in inter‐regional electricity transmission; (b) tackle the uncertainties expressed as intervals; (c) support the low‐carbon transition of the power system. Under the renewable‐dominated power structure, 90% of China's electricity demands can be derived from non‐fossil sources by 2060. Inter‐regional electricity transmission will continue to expand due to the dramatic decreases in the costs of renewables and fast‐growing demands for electricity. Northwest and east regions will be the main exporter and importer of renewable electricity. Carbon emissions from power system will peak in 2030 (about 6.21% above the 2020 level) and be eliminated by 96% (of 2030 levels) by 2060. These results can provide support for expansion of renewable capacities, acceleration of low‐carbon transition in power structure, elimination of barriers in electricity trading across regions, and exploration of the trade‐off between system costs and risk. Plain Language Summary China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve the neutrality by 2060. To explore the trade‐off between economic development and emission mitigation, we develop an optimization model to answer the question: how and when to achieve the neutrality ambition for China's power system? We assess the composite effects of renewable energy development and inter‐regional electricity transmission under uncertainties. Under the renewable‐dominated power structure, we find that 90% of China's electricity demands can be derived from non‐fossil sources by 2060. Northwest and east regions will be the main exporter and importer of renewable electricity. Moreover, carbon emissions from power system will peak in 2030 (about 6.21% above the 2020 level) and be eliminated by 96% (of 2030 levels) by 2060. A Chinese case study may have implications for other developing countries to achieve their low‐carbon transition and net‐zero ambition. Key Points Ninety percent of China's electricity demands can be derived from non‐fossil sources by 2060 with renewable‐dominated power structure Northwest and east regions will be the main exporter and importer of renewable electricity The north, northeast and center regions will peak their carbon emissions by 2030, while the east region will peak by 2035