abstract
- Successful inflationary models should (i) describe the data well; (ii) arise generically from sensible UV completions; (iii) be insensitive to detailed fine-tunings of parameters and (iv) make interesting new predictions. We argue that a class of models with these properties is characterized by relatively simple potentials with a constant term and negative exponentials. We here continue earlier work exploring UV completions for these models, including the key (though often ignored) issue of modulus stabilisation, to assess the robustness of their predictions. We show that string models where the inflaton is a fibration modulus seem to be robust due to an effective rescaling symmetry, and fairly generic since most known Calabi-Yau manifolds are fibrations. This class of models is characterized by a generic relation between the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ and the spectral index $n_s$ of the form $r \propto (n_s -1)^2$ where the proportionality constant depends on the nature of the effects used to develop the inflationary potential and the topology of the internal space. In particular we find that the largest values of the tensor-to-scalar ratio that can be obtained by generalizing the original set-up are of order $r \lesssim 0.01$. We contrast this general picture with specific popular models, such as the Starobinsky scenario and $\alpha$-attractors. Finally, we argue the self consistency of large-field inflationary models can strongly constrain non-supersymmetric inflationary mechanisms.