An interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic program for water resources management under uncertainty

This study presents an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IFTSP) method for the planning of water-resources-management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the concepts of interval-parameter and fuzzy programming techniques within a two-stage stochastic optimization framework. The approach has two major advantages in comparison to other optimization techniques. Firstly, the IFTSP method can incorporate pre-defined water policies directly into its optimization process and, secondly, it can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed not only as possibility and probability distributions but also as discrete intervals directly into its solution procedure. The IFTSP process is applied to an earlier case study of regional water resources management and it is demonstrated how the method efficiently produces stable solutions together with different risk levels of violating pre-established allocation criteria. In addition, a variety of decision alternatives are generated under different combinations of water shortage.