Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland

In this study, a mixed integer fuzzy interval-stochastic programming model was developed for supporting the improvement of eco-resilience to floods in wetlands. This method allows uncertainties that are associated with eco-resilience improvement and can be presented as both probability distributions and interval values to be incorporated within a general modeling framework. Also, capacity-expansion plans of eco-resilience can be addressed through introducing binary variables. Moreover, penalties due to ecological damages which are associated with the violation of predefined targets can be effectively incorporated within the modeling and decision process. Thus, complexities associated with flood resistance and eco-resilience planning in wetlands can be systematically reflected, highly enhancing robustness of the modeling process. The developed method was then applied to a case of eco-resilience enhancement planning in three ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland. Interval solutions under different river flow levels and different ecological damages were generated. They could be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired eco-resilience schemes to resist floods without causing too much damages. The application indicates that the model is helpful for supporting: (a) adjustment or justification of allocation patterns of ecological flood-resisting capacities, (b) formulation of local policies regarding eco-resilience enhancement options and policy interventions, and (c) analysis of interactions among multiple administrative targets within a wetland.