abstract
- Contradictions of sustainable transportation development and environmental issues have been aggravated significantly and been one of the major concerns for energy systems planning and management. A heavy emphasis is placed on stimulation of electric vehicles (EVs) to handle these problems associated with various complexities and uncertainties in municipal energy system (MES). In this study, an interval-possibilistic basic-flexible programming (IPBFP) method is proposed for planning MES of Qingdao, where uncertainties expressed as interval-flexible variables and interval-possibilistic parameters can be effectively reflected. Support vector regression (SVR) is used for predicting electricity demand of the city under various scenarios. Solutions of EVs stimulation levels and satisfaction levels in association with flexible constraints and predetermined necessity degrees are analyzed, which can help identify the optimized energy-supply patterns that could plunk for improvement of air quality and hedge against violation of soft constraints. Results disclose that largely developing EVs can help facilitate the city's energy system with an environment-effective way. However, compared to the rapid growth of transportation, the EVs' contribution of improving the city's air quality is limited. It is desired that, to achieve an environmentally sustainable MES, more concerns should be focused on the integration of increasing renewable energy resources, stimulating EVs as well as improving energy transmission, transport and storage.