A multi-scenario input-output economy-energy-environment nexus management model for Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration

Synergistic management of economy-energy-environment nexus (EEEN) system is essential for balancing the tradeoff among economic development, energy supply, and environment conservation. In this study, a multi-scenario input-output economy-energy-environment nexus management (abbreviated as MIO-ENM) model is developed through incorporating input-output model (IOM), scenario analysis, and simulation-optimization techniques within a general framework. MIO-ENM is capable of identifying the main factors affecting the EEEN system as well as generating optimal strategies supporting regional sustainability. The MIO-ENM model is applied to planning EEEN of Pearl River Delta (abbreviated as PRD) urban agglomeration over a long-term planning horizon (2021–2035). Results for planning economic and energy-related activities have been obtained, which can be used for further generating decision alternatives. Results disclose that: (i) development of advanced manufacturing and service industry can improve the regional economic efficiency; (ii) under all scenarios, the proportion of electricity in energy consumption would exceed 35% mainly due to the environmental requirement; (iii) the annual economic growth rate is suggested around 6.0% during 2021–2035; (iv) compared to the conventional approach, the integrated modeling of EEEN can generate optimal joint-management strategies for economy development, energy production, and environmental protection, which are beneficial to the sustainability of the PRD urban agglomeration.