Estimating the Optimal Time for a Road Concession Contract in Brazil

Brazil has one of the largest road networks managed under concession contracts in the world. The concessions of the Federal Concession Program are divided into three stages. The main aim of this research was to identify critical successful contracts from the Third Stage of the Concession Program. The methodology adopted follows the model proposed by Ng et al. (2007). This model verifies the probability at which the project will be successfully run within the term contract. The results showed a discrepancy between the time contractually agreed and the one simulated by the model for two of the seven contracts signed in the Third Stage of the Concession Program.