The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC

This study investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) in five GCC countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study uses an augmented production function and annual time series data over the period 1975-2016. For the estimation of the models, the Johansen cointegration test is employed to test the existence of a long-run relationship between growth and exports. In addition, the multivariate Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model framework and a modified version of the Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The empirical results provide evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run for the UAE, while the converse is true for Bahrain. In addition, a bi-directional causality exists between exports and growth in the case of Kuwait. In the long-run, the validity of the ELG is confirmed in the case of Bahrain, while economic growth causes exports in the case of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.