The impact of price on young people's smoking behaviour

This paper aims at testing the impact of price on the decision to start smoking. We investigate the decision to start once (versus never start) and the age at which this decision is taken. Using recollection data from adults collected in a general population survey about the age at which they started smoking, we estimate the simultaneous decision to start smoking and the conditional decision of the age at which to start by means of a "split population duration model". We find that for 15-year-olds, cigarette price does not have a significant impact on the probability of becoming a smoker, but that the price, for 18-year-olds has a dissuasive effect on would-be smokers. Higher cigarette prices might also delay the age of initiation, but the results on this question are less conclusive.