Railroad transportation of dangerous goods: A conditional exposure approach to minimize transport risk

Hazardous materials (hazmat) are potentially harmful to people and environment due to their toxic ingredients. Although a significant portion of hazmat is transported via railroads, prevailing studies on dangerous goods focus on highway shipments. In this work, we develop a risk assessment methodology that takes into consideration the differentiating features of trains and the characteristics of train accident. The proposed approach incorporates train-length, train-decile position of hazmat railcar, the sequence of events leading to hazmat release, and the associated consequence from ruptured railcars. Freight-train derailment reports of the Federal Railroad Administration were analyzed to both get a better understanding of the problem, and also to propose a more precise assessment methodology. The assessment methodology, which includes Bayes Theorem and Logical Diagrams, were used to study a US based case example, which was further analyzed to gain relevant managerial insights.