Prognostic significance of residual venous obstruction in patients with treated unprovoked deep vein thrombosis

Residual venous obstruction (RVO) could improve the stratification of the risk of recurrence after unprovoked deep vein thrombosis (DVT), but results from clinical studies and study-level meta-analyses are conflicting. It was the objective of this analysis to determine if RVO is a valid predictor of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with a first unprovoked DVT who had received at least three months of anticoagulant therapy. Individual patient data were obtained from the datasets of original studies, after a systematic search of electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library), supplemented by manual reviewing of the reference lists and contacting content experts. A multivariate, shared-frailty Cox model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrent VTE, including, as covariates: RVO; age; sex; anticoagulation duration before RVO assessment; and anticoagulation continuation after RVO assessment. A total of 2,527 patients from 10 prospective studies were included. RVO was found in 1,380 patients (55.1%) after a median of six months from a first unprovoked DVT. Recurrent VTE occurred in 399 patients (15.8%) during a median follow-up of 23.3 months. After multivariate Cox analysis, RVO was independently associated with recurrent VTE (HR = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.65). The association was stronger if RVO was detected early, i.e. at three months after DVT (HR = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.11-4.25), but non-significant if detected later, i.e. >6 months (HR = 1.19; 95% CI: 0.87-1.61). In conclusion, after a first unprovoked DVT, RVO is a weak overall predictor of recurrent VTE. The association is stronger if RVO is detected at an earlier time (3 months) after thrombosis.