Testing for the spatial spread of demographic change in modern Europe

The spatial spread of lower fertility and mortality rates throughout Europe is investigated analytically in this paper. A mathematical formulation capable of representing alternative modalities of such spread is proposed. Then its parameters are estimated in order to determine which one pattern of spread is consistent with empirical data. The model is generated through the application of the “Expansion Method”The methodology used leads to defining a measure of speed of spatial spread and to measuring the speed of the spatial spread of lower birth and death rates in Europe.