The TRAAGIC score: early predictors of inpatient mortality in adult trauma patients
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Background: Scoring systems are important in prognostication and decision-making in the management of trauma patients. However, they often include an extensive list of factors not easily recalled by clinicians on admission. Additionally, multivariable analyses examining predictors of mortality in these patients is lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a mortality prediction score for adult trauma inpatients. The intention was to create a scoring tool that could be easily remembered and implemented by clinicians. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of 5175 adult trauma patients treated at a level 1 trauma centre in Hamilton, Ontario, from 2002 to 2013. For derivation of the score, logistic regression was applied to data collected from 2002 to 2006 to identify potential predictors. Variables with p ≤ 0.10 identified from univariable analysis were entered in the multivariable logistic regression. Statistical significance was set at a value of 0.05. The prediction performance of the score was then assessed and validated on data for trauma patients treated from 2007 to 2013. The discrimination ability and calibration of the validation model were assessed. Frequencies, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and C-statistics were reported. Results: The TRAAGIC prediction score (transfusion, age, airway, hyperglycemia, international normalized ratio, creatinine) showed a C-index of 0.85 (95% CI 0.83–0.87) in the derivation cohort. The TRAAGIC score had high discrimination and good calibration when applied to the validation cohort. Conclusion: The TRAAGIC score is an easily remembered and straightforward toolthat can reasonably predict inpatient mortality for adult trauma patients.
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