Prognostic factors associated with long term survival in chemotherapy-treated advanced pancreatic cancer: A Canadian multicenter analysis.
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416 Background: The outcomes of patients (pts) with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) are poor. With the use of currently available multi-agent regimens, median overall survival (mOS) remains < 12 months. Select pts, however, experience a protracted survival. Little is known about the clinical, pathologic and treatment characteristics associated with long term survival (LTS) in APC. Methods: Pooled individual level data from six Canadian cancer centers of pts diagnosed with APC from 2012 to 2016 who received at least one cycle of chemotherapy (CT) were analyzed. Clinical, pathologic and treatment characteristics, as well as survival, were compared between pts who lived < and ≥ 18 months. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of survival. Results: Of 455 pts, 96% had metastatic disease and 88 (19%) survived ≥ 18 months. Compared to pts who survived < 18 months, those with LTS had lower WBC (p = 0.0025), CA 19-9 (p < 0.001), ALP (p < 0.001) and LDH (p = 0.007) at baseline. Pts with LTS also had higher albumin (p < 0.001) and BMI (p = 0.0268). In addition, they had better ECOG (p < 0.001) and were more likely to have tumors in the head of the pancreas (p = 0.0204). LTS pts were more likely to have a complete response (CR) or partial response (PR) to 1L CT (p < 0.001). The mOS seen with LTS was 29.2 months, compared to 4.3 months (p < 0.001). On multivariable logistic regression, independent predictors of LTS included: primary tumor in the head of the pancreas (OR 3.42 95% CI 1.2-9.76); experiencing a CR or PR to 1L CT (OR 9.19 95% CI 3.78-22.32); and receipt of 2L doublet CT (OR 2.72 95% CI 1.05 to 7.08). Conversely, factors associated with lower likelihood of LTS included: ECOG ≥ 2 (OR 0.32 95% CI 0.11-0.95); and elevated CA 19-9 (OR 0.43 95% CI 0.21-0.9). Conclusions: A select proportion of pts with APC experience LTS and have clinical features which differentiate them from those without LTS. The use of performance status, primary tumor location, pre-treatment CA 19-9, 2L CT type and radiologic response may help identify LTS and inform discussions regarding treatment and prognosis.
