Predicting Health Risks from Intrusion into Drinking Water Pipes over Time

This exploratory study uses corrosion rates in aging metal pipes to predict the number of holes in drinking water supply systems over time. Using this estimate of the number of holes, it is possible to estimate the volume and number of pathogens introduced by negative-pressure events by Monte Carlo simulation. The probability of an intrusion volume greater than 10 L increases from less than 1% in a 25-year-old pipe to greater than 70% in a …