Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer Journal Articles uri icon

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abstract

  • BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics. RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities. CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

authors

  • Lee, CK
  • Simes, RJ
  • Brown, C
  • Lord, S
  • Wagner, U
  • Plante, M
  • Vergote, I
  • Pisano, C
  • Parma, G
  • Burges, A
  • Bourgeois, H
  • Högberg, T
  • Bentley, J
  • Angleitner-Boubenizek, L
  • Ferrero, A
  • Richter, B
  • Hirte, Holger
  • Gebski, V
  • Pfisterer, J
  • Pujade-Lauraine, E
  • Friedlander, M

publication date

  • October 2011