Conservation planning as an adaptive strategy for climate change and groundwater depletion in Wadi El Natrun, Egypt

In drylands, groundwater is often the sole source of freshwater for industrial, domestic and agricultural uses, while concurrently supporting ecosystems. Many dryland aquifers are becoming depleted due to over-pumping and a lack of natural recharge, resulting in loss of storage and future water supplies, water-level declines that reduce access to freshwater, water quality problems, and, in extreme cases, geologic hazards. Conservation is often proposed as a strategy for managing groundwater to reduce or reverse the depletion, although there is a need to better understand its potential effectiveness and benefits at the local scale. This study assesses the impact of water-conservation planning strategies on groundwater resources in the Wadi El Natrun (WEN) area of northern Egypt. WEN has been subjected to groundwater depletion and quality degradation since the 1990s, attributed to agricultural and industrial groundwater usage. Initiatives have been proposed to increase the sustainability of the groundwater resource in the study area, but they have yet to be evaluated. Simultaneously, there are also proposals to increase the extent of arable land and thus demand for freshwater. In this study, three water management scenarios are developed and assessed to the 2060s for their impact on groundwater resources using a hydrogeologic model. Results demonstrate that demand management implemented through an optimized irrigation and crop rotation strategy has the greatest potential to significantly reduce risk of groundwater depletion compared to the other two scenarios—“business as usual” and “30% water-use reduction”—that were evaluated.