Changes in river water temperature between 1980 and 2012 in Yongan watershed, eastern China: Magnitude, drivers and models

Climate warming is expected to have major impacts on river water quality, water column/hyporheic zone biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems. A quantitative understanding of spatio-temporal air (Ta) and water (Tw) temperature dynamics is required to guide river management and to facilitate adaptations to climate change. This study determined the magnitude, drivers and models for increasing Tw in three river segments of the Yongan watershed in eastern China. Over the 1980–2012 period, Tw in the watershed increased by 0.029–0.046°Cyr−1 due to a ∼0.050°Cyr−1 increase of Ta and changes in local human activities (e.g., increasing developed land and population density and decreasing forest area). A standardized multiple regression model was developed for predicting annual Tw (R2=0.88–0.91) and identifying/partitioning the impact of the principal drivers on increasing Tw:Ta (76±1%), local human activities (14±2%), and water discharge (10±1%). After normalizing water discharge, climate warming and local human activities were estimated to contribute 81–95% and 5–19% of the observed rising Tw, respectively. Models forecast a 0.32–1.76°C increase in Tw by 2050 compared with the 2000–2012 baseline condition based on four future scenarios. Heterogeneity of warming rates existed across seasons and river segments, with the lower flow river and dry season demonstrating a more pronounced response to climate warming and human activities. Rising Tw due to changes in climate, local human activities and hydrology has a considerable potential to aggravate river water quality degradation and coastal water eutrophication in summer. Thus it should be carefully considered in developing watershed management strategies in response to climate change.