Feasibility assessment of zero-emission medium and heavy-duty vehicles in fleet operations

The decarbonization of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV 1 1 Medium-duty vehicles (MDVs) are defined as having a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 to 26,000 lbs. (classes 2b to 6), while heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) have a GVWR exceeding 26,000 lbs. (classes 7 and 8). ) fleets has prompted growing interests in zero-emission and alternative fuel technologies. Despite increasing deployments, the operational suitability of these technologies varies significantly across applications. Using real-world vehicle operational data and representative drive cycles, this paper models and simulates four major powertrain types; battery electric (BEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV), compressed natural gas (CNG), and diesel across vehicle classes 2b to 8, within the Autonomie simulation framework. Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and total cost of ownership (TCO) are examined based on simulation results. BEVs consistently demonstrate lower energy use and TCO, while FCEVs achieve meaningful emission reductions but remain limited by energy costs. A feasibility assessment, incorporating charging constraints and various operational profiles, highlights the practical challenges of BEV deployment in specific duty cycles. These results provide a quantitative basis to support technology selection and fleet transition planning under diverse operational scenarios.