Interpreting an unfolding future: Is teleworking as common after the pandemic as we expected? and what does it mean for policy?

While many studies lead to expectations of significant post-pandemic telework, has this actually become the reality? Teleworking (work-from-home) may significantly change activity patterns and land markets in metropolitan areas. It stands to gut the downtowns of major metropolitan areas of their knowledge workers. Towards understanding what telework means for future transportation policy, this study explores how teleworking has changed based not only on employees’ expectations of the future, but also based on teleworking rates experienced after the pandemic. Moreover, this study explores what teleworking changes are likely to mean with respect to early fears that downtowns will become hollowed out. Using two waves (2021 and 2023) of the Future Mobility in Canada Survey (FMCS), this study updates estimates of future teleworking using fall 2023 data to reflect on the changing policy implications of teleworking propensities. Using descriptive statistics and inferential models, this study finds teleworking has lessened between 2021 and 2023, it has decentralized out of the downtowns, it no longer disproportionately offsets transit use, and it is becoming more prominent in households with two or more vehicles. Increasing disconnects between in-person younger workers and virtual older workers portend workplace challenges. Moreover, findings suggest that policymakers will need to wrestle with the question as to whether telework should be viewed as an economic good (notably serving high-income households) or as a merit good (notably serving latent teleworking demand by women). Despite significant uncertainty over the longer-term, significant policy implications appear to hinge on non-transportation outcomes, including time poverty, workplace mentoring, and the meaning of downtowns as work hubs.