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Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Abstract

Abstract Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%–5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38–2.7%). Comparing deaths onboard with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates using China data, we estimate IFR and CFR in China to be 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) respectively. Aim To estimate the infection and case fatality ratio of COVID-19, using data from passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship while correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death, and age-structure of the population.

Authors

Russell TW; Hellewell J; Jarvis CI; Van Zandvoort K; Abbott S; Ratnayake R; group CCW; Flasche S; Eggo RM; Edmunds WJ

Publication date

March 8, 2020

DOI

10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773

Preprint server

medRxiv
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