Where to run? Racialized minority affinities for in-group candidate districts in Canada

Drawing from an original survey quasi-experiment presenting respondents with fictional candidate slates varying in ethnic composition, this study examines the impact of racialized affinity on preferences for where to run for office. Prior research shows that racialized candidates typically run in districts with a high in-group ethnic population, and prior in-group candidates or elected officials. But these findings are largely based on observed outcomes, making it difficult to disentangle aspirant preferences from those of party gatekeepers. We demonstrate, at the individual level, that racialized persons in Canada express significantly stronger preferences for running in contexts with in-group candidates, and that this preference is stronger with more such candidates, though not consistently. Our study contributes to the scant literature on race and candidate recruitment in Canada, and to a broader understanding of how minority presence activates electoral engagement.