Affective polarization and institutional confidence in Canada

Confidence in political institutions has reportedly been in decline over the past 40 years. Yet there is heterogeneity in how this phenomenon has manifested across countries, political institutions and people with different partisan commitments. The increasing antagonism towards opposition partisans – known as affective polarization – may hasten this decline, undermining types of institutional confidence that were perceived to be more durable. This article investigates the effects of affective polarization across non-partisan institutions in Canada. We contend that stronger levels of affective polarization that produce lower levels of trust in partisan institutions may spill over to other non-partisan institutions because polarized individuals may perceive all institutions as reflecting government priorities. Using data from the 2004–2021 Canada Election Studies, we find evidence that spillover is happening to some degree, but that these effects are driven by specific party dynamics and government/opposition status. Although those who support the opposition party report less confidence in non-partisan institutions than government supporters across both main parties, Conservatives who are affectively polarized have lower institutional trust overall, regardless of whether their party is in government or opposition.