The translocation trade-off for eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida): balancing harm to source populations with the goal of re-establishment1

The use of translocations to recover populations requires a sufficiently large number of individuals from source populations, but removing too many individuals could lead to source population collapse. To understand the trade-off between the probabilities of source population extirpation and translocation success, matrix population models that incorporate Allee effects, density dependence, and demographic and environmental stochasticity were combined with a model that simulates removals from source populations. We apply these models to eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida; Species at Risk Act status: Threatened) translocation scenarios in Canada. The results suggest that translocations most often require source populations >20 000 individuals, as source population extirpation probability increased with the number and frequency of removals. Transport mortality or losses immediately following introduction further affected translocation success. Uncertainty around life-history parameters and the strength of Allee effects led to additional uncertainty about the required source population size. Although stochastic processes affected the probability of translocation success, factors such as stocking density and frequency can be controlled, and translocation may therefore be a viable strategy for eastern sand darter recovery, even when applying cautious thresholds to guard against uncertainty.