Dissecting Knowledge, Guessing, and Blunder in Multiple Choice Assessments

Multiple choice results are inherently probabilistic outcomes, as correct responses reflect a combination of knowledge and guessing, while incorrect responses additionally reflect blunder, a confidently committed mistake. To objectively resolve knowledge from responses in an MC test structure, we evaluated probabilistic models that explicitly account for guessing, knowledge and blunder using eight assessments (>9,000 responses) from an …