Implications of future climate on water availability in the western Canadian river basins

ABSTRACT Precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand are the most dominant factors affecting water availability in a region. This study examines projected changes in these hydro‐climatic variables over western Canada under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using statistically downscaled, high resolution climate data generated by six Global Climate Models ( GCMs ) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP5 ). Potential changes in the spatial and seasonal distributions of water availability over nine major western Canadian river basins are examined by computing the 3‐ and 12‐month standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration indices ( SPEI ‐3 and SPEI ‐12). While individual GCM projections vary on the rate and seasonality of changes, they all indicate similar spatial and temporal patterns. The highest projected increases in precipitation and temperature are primarily in the northern basins, with some decreases in summer precipitation in the southern basins. The evolution of the SPEI ‐12 values for the southern basins such as Columbia, Saskatchewan, Fraser and Athabasca indicate a gradual increase in the magnitude and duration of water deficit, while the reverse was found for most of the northern basins such as Peel/Lower Mackenzie, Liard, and Northern Pacific that show a gradual increase in water surplus on an annual basis. The SPEI ‐3, however, shows that almost all river basins in western Canada, with the exception of Peel/Lower Mackenzie that are located in the extreme north of the study region, are projected to experience decreasing water availability in summer. In general, the study highlights the potential changes in the spatial and seasonal distribution of western Canadian water resources and sets the stage for a more detailed and process based hydro‐climate modelling study to be conducted in the region.