Bear facts and dragon boats: Rethinking the modernization of Chinese naval power

Since the early 1990s Chinese naval modernization efforts have excited concerns of a portentous buildup and the threat of an emergent blue water capability. Such assessments under-contextualize and typically privilege quantitative measures over qualitative ones, a distorted picture of Chinese naval power. This is reminiscent of inflated estimates of the Soviet navy through the 1980s, thoroughly disproved as the collapse of the Soviet Union brought to light the myriad deficiencies of its navy. This article draws on that earlier experience to challenge exaggerated claims about China's naval capabilities and to provide a stronger foundation for evaluation of the implications of its ongoing fleet modernization programmes. After examining the direct effects of Chinese naval modernization and the implications for American security commitments in East Asia and regional power balances with Japan and Taiwan, it concludes that Chinese modernization is neither bellicose nor destabilizing. Viewed from this perspective, China is unlikely to challenge the naval status quo in the region.